The Stats Don’t Matter; Ducks, Beavers Stand at the Brink

Sizing up the Oregon-OSU Civil War Saturday, let’s look at the stats for a minute: Oregon ranks first in scoring offense, rushing offense, and total offense.  Now, throw those stats away, they are meaningless, as they were earned mostly by players no longer suiting up for the Ducks.  Presently, they look like a (bad) high school offense, with dropped passes, sacks and turnovers.

A few less glamorous statistics may affect this game, in what shapes up to be in sub or near-freezing weather: punting average, net punting, turnovers, and penalties.  In three of those categories, Oregon has the advantage, which might account for the crazy five-point favorite status deranged gamblers anointed on the Ducks this past Monday.  The fourth category unfortunately: turnovers, is where the Beavers currently prevail, leading the Pac-10 with plus seven, while Oregon has sunk to minus five the past two weeks.  In my own experience viewing the Civil War, usually the team with the fewest turnovers and best rushing figures wins.

If it comes to a rushing game, it could be an interesting duel, particularly if Yvenson Bernard, the brilliant and tough runner for the Beavers, is able to play after undergoing orthoscopic surgery following a one-half performance two weeks ago in a win over Washington State. Yvenson’s status was undetermined going into the game, but he will be suited up and has, in the past, gone off the “scratched” list into full action when things got difficult for the Beavers.  John Neal, Oregon’s fine secondary coach, sees OSU as a totally different team when Yvenson is there, “he’d be my choice for MVP the last three years in the conference.”  Otherwise, look for the Beavers to be similar to UCLA, a team also hurt by injuries and having to lean on backup quarterbacks.

Oregon’s counterpart, the great Jonathan Stewart, second-leading rusher in the conference (ahead of Bernard), is also dinged up, but looking for the same kind of all-out effort that made him such a force in the 30-28 loss to the Beavers last season.  If it comes down to it, a “run off” between the two teams would be very interesting, since both have very stout defenses right now.  Both teams have similar philosophies, overloading the defense “in the box” so as to outnumber the number of offensive blockers available to every formation.

The Ducks, whose offensive staff went through the midnight oil early in the week looking at ways to simplify the formations and plays the backup quarterbacks, Cody Kempt and Justin Roper, must execute against OSU’s formidable defense, which ranks second in the conference behind USC.  Ironically, there was a similar situation facing the Duck offensive coaches in 2003 when Kellen Clemens was the starting quarterback as a sophomore.  He had turned the ball over several times in his first heavy action against the Huskies, but before the Beaver game, the coaches simplified formations, plays and reads for Clemens, who masterfully lead the Ducks to a 34-20 win in the Civil War.

The spread formation’s strength (spreading the offense over the whole field) is also a weakness when a newbie takes over the controls.  It can appear that there is way too much to look at in trying to read the defense.  In some cases, it might help to cut the splits of receivers, giving both them and the quarterbacks more room to work with and bunching up the defenders while doing so.  Instead of three or four choices on pass routes, some plays can be simplified to two reads and with the quarterback just reading half the field.  These things can all be done in a week of practice, but the problem is giving Kempt and Roper enough repetitions to make them proficient, and confident, in their execution.  All this with receivers and a tight end who are not producing or playing with great enthusiasm right now.

For all these reasons, it looks like an uphill battle for Oregon this Saturday.  However, one of the absolutely delicious elements of the college football rivalry game is that all the stuff I have been writing about is worthless once the game gets going.  Both teams have much to gain by winning, and equally, much to lose by losing.  This is a bit different than in the past, when OSU often had less at stake than Oregon.  Both teams know each other well and have experienced deep pain at the hands of their worthy opponent.  It will be intense and emotional, and the Ducks, who are getting 20 yards less per game in penalties than the Beavers, might have a distinct discipline advantage if they can avoid the “penalties of passion and stupidity,” that rear their head in rivalry games.

Mike Riley and his staff at Oregon State have the most successful record in the state of Oregon the past five years, by one game.  This year, like last, after big disappointments and injuries early in the season, the Beavers have rebounded in fine style, gaining strength as the season closes.  It’s just the opposite for the Ducks and Mike Bellotti.  The disappointments of injuries, and the resulting defeats, have been devastating and the Ducks face losing their last three conference games for the second year in a row.  It’s a beguiling combination to this brew, and often, with all the unpredictability of college rivalry games, there enters irony.  The most ironical thing I could think of this year is that OSU’s Alexis Serna, the premier place kicker of the Pac-10 and one who has enjoyed two career days against the Ducks, will somehow miss a kick that gives victory to Oregon.

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