Duck Universe - Chalk Talk

Chalk Talk

Written by Ken Woody

Thursday, 27 December 2007

Ducks look to avoid another dissapointing end to a great season.

I will be honest with you (as always), the Ducks are in it up to their mallard necks against South Florida in the Sun Bowl. How good is South Florida, and where the heck did they come from? They’re a Big East football team, which if you’ve watched ESPN’s Thursday night football the past two years, you’ve come to understand there are some pretty good football teams named after basketball schools. This one, the Bulls of South Florida, boast great athletes at every position, and they are FAST.

Watch for George Selvie (#95), only a sophomore, but among the national leaders in tackles for loss (31.5) and sacks (14.5). He could start for USC, and that’s quite a compliment. The Bulls’ two corners, Mike Jenkins (#4) and (#21) Trae Williams (who has run three interceptions for scores this season), can shut down the outside passing game. As a defensive unit, South Florida is number one in the country in turnovers gained, fumbles recovered and interceptions, and they only allow 28.5% third-down conversion attempts. Before Dennis Dixon got hurt, the Ducks were converting 50% on third down. Since, the rate is closer to 30%, so this will be an offensive goal for Oregon going into the game.

The spread offense, so brilliantly coached and directed by Oregon this season, depends on wide receivers that can beat a defender one-on-one and block the outside option game. Oregon lost their three dynamic play makers, Brian Paysinger, Jeremiah Johnson, and Dennis Dixon to tacklers making plays after beating the blocks of wide receivers attempting to block them.

At times, Garren Strong and tight end Ed Dickson have blocked well, but it has been sporadic. The Ducks have no chance offensively if the receivers don’t show up and catch and block effectively. If South Florida is able to play man-to-man defense the whole game, they’ll be able to “load the box” with an extra defender to gang up on Jonathan Stewart and bring an extra rusher on pass situations. Without a breakaway scrambling threat, the Ducks could very easily be hobbled.

Look for Chip Kelly, offensive coordinator, to run less triple option and more of a “give or pitch,” kind of option. As the play caller, you can scheme your formations, motion and blocking assignments to help your quarterback, but it is never as effective against a speedy, disciplined defense as with a quarterback like Dennis Dixon. The Bulls’ defensive coaching staff has 131 years of coaching experience and this has shown the past two years as South Florida has defeated West Virginia, one of the pre-eminent national “spread” showcases in college football.

Offensively, the picture isn’t any easier. South Florida boasts one of the country’s best run/pass quarterback in Matt Grothe, who, as a sophomore, is well on his way of breaking all existing quarterback records. He is a very efficient passer, and has rushed for over 100 yards three times this season. The receivers are young and FAST. The offensive line is mobile and disciplined.

South Florida lost three games this season by a total of 15 points, and in those games had 11 turnovers. Still, Grothe had shots in the end zone in all three games, with enough time on the clock that might have brought victory.

The best thing going for the Ducks is that the offense they’ll be seeing is very much like the one they’ve spent all spring and fall camp defending: their own. Defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti has learned a great deal about defending the spread offense through working with, and coaching against, offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. This will be helpful, and Aliotti has found ways in which he can better determine who the ball carriers might be by altering some of his secondary calls.

For example, if you play a two deep, your corners are going to be covering the pitch and linebackers will cover the quarterback. With a three-deep coverage, a safety can take the quarterback. Watch for who takes the quarterback when the Bulls run their option and if Grothe pitches the ball, which defender, a safety or corner, takes the pitch man.

Oregon’s defense should hold up against the Bulls’ offense, at least for a half. The offense will absolutely have to protect the ball and convert third downs at least better than one of three. Special teams offer the potential for surprise, or disaster. South Florida’s one weakness appears to be taking a lot of penalties by their special teams—the Bulls are not as disciplined in special teams as they are on offense and defense. Perhaps this is an extension of the personality of the head coach, Jim Leavitt. I will tell you only that he is best friends with Bob and Mike Stoops and you can guess what his on-field demeanor is like. His sideline performance in a losing cause against Rutgers, when his team was ranked number two in the country, was disgraceful.

This lack of discipline can negate great plays and create field position opportunities for Oregon. Against UCLA, the Ducks’ average starting field position was the 19-yard line. The only reason that game ended close was that the Bruins stunk it up on offense. That’s not going to happen in El Paso. Mike Bellotti desperately needs a bowl game win to break a four-game losing streak. If the Ducks pull this one off, it will go down as one of Oregon’s best bowl game wins ever, because this opponent is really, really good.

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