These words speak volumes when you look at the statistics for the Wolverine’s 34-32 loss to the Division 1-AA champions from Boone, N.C.  Michigan had a fumble and interception stop the offense in enemy territory, took seven penalties, several that stopped promising drives, and allowed 7/13 third-down conversions to an energized opponent that was 4-4 for scoring in the red zone.

What does an off sides call do to you when you’re third and four?  Not only does the drive continue if you’re on defense, or stop it if you’re on offense, but it has the potential to undermine confidence and determination in the players.  Bellotti has often been critical of the kind of penalties that plagued the Wolverines last week, often in the same context: defeat.  “Penalties that occur before the ball is snapped or after the whistle,” were pointed out as prime culprits in Appalachian State’s monumental upset by Carr, who now finds himself under more public criticism than he’s ever faced in his career at Michigan. 

Without a Tony Snow to deal with the hot questions, Carr will have to endure this most ugly of hangovers, the kind that won’t ever go completely away.  You can hear Wolverine fans say after the Buckeyes’ win, “Sure, Carr beat Ohio State, big deal; how’d he do against Appalachian State?”

Enter, stage right, the Oregon Ducks, fresh off a big win over a dangerous and flashy Houston Cougar team, 48-27.  Statistics can be deceiving there, too.   Houston’s clever offense had the ball 24 more plays than the Ducks, but had four turnovers and 11 penalties.  Oregon showed great discipline: no turnovers or offensive penalties, outstanding performances by special teams and scored 4-4 touchdowns in the red zone.

So the question is, can Lloyd Carr get his Michigan team “to become more disciplined, smarter and a team that executes better.”?  Having watched Oregon’s offense practice since spring, I have been impressed with the level of hard work and discipline the coaches have demanded, and received, from the players.  Obviously, based on the Houston game, it has paid off.  Question: “Will this euphoria hold up in front of 109,000 angry fans in the Big House?  Obviously not, euphoria is a fleeting thing, but discipline is not.

What will be most interesting this Saturday, is if Oregon’s discipline will hold up under enormous pressure, including the possibility of winning the game outright; or will Michigan be able to suck it up and perform better than they have since before the Ohio State game last year?  Oregon will find out if they’re for real this week, whether all the previous work has steeled them into the kind of football team that can hang with Michigan (which means you can hang with USC and Cal) or if it’s just another example of the “Autzen magic.”  Out-of-town commentators have observed how much better Oregon plays at home than on the road and it is this obstacle the Ducks must surmount to be a rose instead of a wall flower.  Last season’s losses to Cal, USC, WSU, OSU, BYU were all marred by turnovers, penalties; you know, the same stuff Michigan is looking at right now.

Michigan’s top running back Mike Hart, rushed 23 times for 188 yards and three touchdowns in the first and fourth quarters, on the bench with a thigh bruise in between.  He’s no better than Houston’s Anthony Aldridge, nor is Wolverine quarterback Chad Henne a bigger threat than Houston’s quarterbacks.  Firepower-wise, the Duck defense will be up against an offense that will try and be more physical and realistically, Oregon’s front seven didn’t impress in that category against the Cougars.  An inconsistent pass rush, allowing contain to break down against a scrambling quarterback and missed tackling plagued the Ducks, along with alignment and assignment errors.  All those can be fixed in practice, but will those fixes hold up in the Big House before an irate crowd that demands their maize and blue win every game they play?

Oregon’s chances to win depend on two things: the defense containing  Michigan’s offense and Dennis Dixon leading the offense, minimizing turnovers and penalties, just as they have stressed so far.  Lloyd Carr already thinks a lot of Dixon: “He’s a veteran guy.  He’s been around.  He’s been in big games.”  Question is, does Dixon think as much of himself as Carr does?  Tune in to ABC on Saturday and find out. 

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